A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
